AI writes. Robots build. Only one of them has ever made anything cheaper. π§±π€
The chart nobody wants to see ππ
Since 2000, TVs are down \~95% in price. Toys, software, phones: down. Housing, healthcare, college, childcare: up 100-200%. Everything that got cheap was made by machines. Everything that got expensive is made by hands.
AI's report card π§ .
Global productivity growth after 3 years of ChatGPT: still flat. π₯±.
AI makes the median worker faster at things that were already cheap: words, code, slides. It's productivity for the spreadsheet economy. π
Robots' report card π¦Ύ.
Amazon: 1,000,000+ robots, and it now employs fewer humans per package than at any point in its history.
South Korea: \~1,000 industrial robots per 10,000 factory workers, world leader, and its manufacturing output per worker is 3x the global average.
China installed more industrial robots in 2023 than the rest of the world combined. Not a coincidence that "China price" exists. π
AI's dirty secret: near-zero marginal cost means everyone gets it, so nobody gets an edge. A productivity gain everyone has is not an advantage, it's a new floor. π’
Robots' dirty secret: Moravec's paradox. Chess is easy, folding a towel is hard. Every humanoid demo you've seen was cut from 40 takes. π¬
So: AI wins the next 5 years, robotics wins the next 50. And the only thing that ever made your life actually cheaper is the second one.