Humans will be replaced. The only question is when.

Old companies shrink by not hiring. New companies are born without the jobs at all.

Lovable hit $100M in yearly revenue in eight months with 45 employees. In the early 2000s, reaching $100M took 500+ employees. That's over 450 jobs nobody ever applied for, because they never existed.

When will AI take so many jobs that everyone notices?

The moment everyone notices will most likely be the next recession. That's when companies cut deep, and it's an easy time to do it, because nobody asks why.

Since the mid-1980s, nearly all routine office and factory jobs lost in the US disappeared within a year of a recession, and they never returned.

AI doesn't need consciousness, ambition, or a desire to rule. It only needs to perform a task better and cheaper than a human.

My estimate:

1. 2026–2030: Massive disruption of intellectual work, software development, administration, and customer service.

2. 2030–2040: Potential restructuring of entire industries as AI agents and robotics take over increasingly complex tasks.

3. 2040 onward: A possible world where human labor is no longer economically necessary for much of production. The timeline is highly uncertain.